COVID, Flu, Plague, Bundibugyo Ebolavirus, Dengue, H5N1, and Other Virus and Health UK and World News Update 9th October 2026
COVID levels in the UK continue to rise and a wave is underway, as was predicted. Levels have been super low since Spring, and you can't have it low forever. In Scotland there is a 121% increase in cases since last week. In Northern Ireland there was an increase in 25/30 areas according to wastewater surveillance (which has been paused this week), but test levels are stable, as they are in Wales. The latest stats show England has more than 10 times as many people infected as 10 weeks ago, up 34% on last week. Hospital admissions in England were a very low 950 in August and 4,939 in September.
Although the trajectory is steep, it must be stressed that this is all from that very low start, so still at low levels, and when people have gone a long time without catching it, and vaccination eligibility is very narrow, it's likely to spread.
There's a bit of talk about 'American COVID' or Stratus variant XFG. Popular in North America over the last couple of years, it's not a new strain, it's not even new to the UK, it just has some small changes. It doesn't appear to be any more severe, but it could have an advantage over some previous immunity - meaning we are even more likely to have high numbers of people catching COVID this Autumn. It also seems more likely to give you a scratchy sore throat, so at least you might sound as ill as you feel and get some sympathy...
Flu in the UK is well ahead of its usual curve - by about 2-6 weeks - so if you are ill with more than a cold, it may not be COVID... Hopefully it's just early and not a signifier that we are in for a bad few months.
Over the past 2 weeks several UK hospitals have already declared NHS alerts and critical incidents due to "respiratory disease". That pressure will only increase for the foreseeable future - and we aren't even into Winter yet.
On a positive note, RSV hasn't moved above baseline yet...
Unsurprisingly the UK NHS are urging eligible people to book their flu and COVID jabs before Winter sets in.
Eligible for the flu jab:
- People aged 65 or over by 31st March 2027
- People aged 18 to 64 with certain long-term health conditions
- Pregnant women
- People living in a care home
- Main carers for an older or disabled person, or who receive a carer's allowance
- Households of people with a weakened immune system
- People who are experiencing homelessness or staying in a homeless hostel or night shelter
- Frontline health and social care workers
Eligible for the COVID jab:
- People aged 75 or over by 31st January 2027
- People aged six months to 74 years with a weakened immune system
- People living in a care home
There are delays in receiving vaccines in some areas due to all 3 strains (2 x Flu A and 1 x Flu B) being different from last year's. They are on the way.
Lets get it out of the way... Russia appears to have had at least one case of pneumonic plague in the Irkutsk Region - or do they?
Pneumonic plague the only form of plague that can be transmitted directly human to human via respiratory droplets, however don't panic just yet because it's actually quite hard to catch - plague is not COVID. It's usually only spread inside the home or in hospitals with very sick people. It's a bacteria that's quick moving, but usually very easily killed by antibiotics. The chances of it causing a pandemic right now are about the same as they are for 'unknown virus in a bat somewhere in a remote cave'.
Patient zero is a 28 year old who worked at the Anti-Plague Institute and had recently returned from a working trip to the border with Mongolia. She became ill around 27th September with what was apparently assumed to be COVID or flu, was hospitalised with severe pneumonia on 29th September and died 2 days later. 197 contacts of the patient were identified and taken for observation to hospitals or the Anti-Plague Institute, in some cases with a Federal Security Service (FSB) escort. Reportedly the Anti-Plague Institute istelf is locked down with around 60 staff members inside. The hospital she attended plus the staff were also quarantined, with several departments not letting people in or out. Local media suggests other nearby hospitals were also closed in part or fully.
This Monday 5th October, the official word from Russia was that authorities are implementing a "comprehensive set of anti-epidemic measures" because a laboratory worker has died from an "unknown illness", and "no microorganisms associated with the employee’s professional duties were detected in samples taken from the patient" - presumably including plague.
Is that comforting? We were also assured that 'no institute staff have reported infectious diseases over the past 10 days', and all of the employee’s recent contacts are being tested and examined.
Some media reported over the weekend that local authorities had asked people not to travel to the affected area 'due to the plague situation', however this was all deleted within 24 hours. There is no confirmation it was actually said, nor do we have confirmation about lab incidents, broken test tubes, actual plague infection or some other stories being promoted in the media worldwide - most of which is pretty biased and/or Government controlled.
Plague is fairly common. Across the world there are occasional but regular cases. The World Health Organisation say that from 2019 to 2025 there were almost 4,000 suspected human cases and 423 deaths reported across 10 countries. Russia hasn't reported a case since a 10 year old boy in 2016, but the US has an average of around 7 a year. A young man died from pneumonic plague in Arizona last Summer. He caught it from domestic cats. Back in the day when plague spread around the world, it infected millions of fleas, animals etc, and we never actually got entirely rid of it. Antibiotics save us - repeatedly - as long as we take them quickly enough.
There is however so SO much about this story that doesn't really make sense - unless you are being incredibly cautious because you hit every threat with a whopping great hammer, or you know there may be unusual risk.
If, and it's a REALLY BIG 'IF', this really was a lab leak, and could be an altered form of plague or something else that is resistant to antibiotics, it would explain why they weren't immediately given to the patient or didn’t work, and it would explain the size of the rapid response from Russian authorities. However, if you were a lab worker who worked with something serious, you'd be wearing all the PPE, and if you had an accident you and your lab would be all over it. The lab would be locked down immediately and the patient isolated, you wouldn't suspect COVID, go home sick for 2 days and then go to a general hospital. So that really doesn't seem plausible unless the lab worker's rapid onset pneumonia really does have an unknown cause, or at least a cause the lab worker didn’t suspect.
By Tuesday night some media were reporting a second employee from the Anti-Plague Institute was ill. On Wednesday the World Health Organisation were so concerned that they asked publicly for more information from Russia.
"WHO has remained in contact with the Russian health authorities and has offered technical support. WHO has requested further information to clarify the cause of the severe pneumonia, the pathogen that prompted the public health measures, and media reports of a second employee with pneumonia of undetermined cause."
And then it's gone quiet...
Will we ever know the full story? Probably not. Russia has a history of hiding pathogen leaks, and lets be honest, any Government of a large country worldwide would probably be the same. Sit on this one for now... unless we hear for sure that any more people are becoming ill.
The Ebola outbreak in DRC has managed to cross the border into Kenya. A Kenyan who had lived in DRC for 7 years apparently became ill about a month ago and had been treated in several hospitals in DRC. He travelled by car and plane through DRC, then drove to Uganda and boarded a flight to Nairobi on Saturday. After landing his condition worsened and he was taken to hospital by a relative. He was isolated, tested and died on Monday. His contacts are being traced, including presumably very worried plane passengers and crew. It isn’t clear what he was ill with in DRC, because a month with Ebola is possible but unusual. It's plausible he caught Ebola in hospital in DRC while being treated for another illness.
The big question for authorities is how he managed to get through airport screening at least twice while unwell.
As of 6th October 2026 DRC had reported 8,728 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola (BVD) cases and 4,205 confirmed deaths, corresponding to a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.2%. Cases have been reported from 7 out of 26 DRC provinces. In some areas the epidemic is slowing down, but in others it's still growing, so overall cases are rising slightly.
On 1st October, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) confirmed a staff member working in DRC has tested positive for BVD. The patient was medically evacuated to Leiden, Netherlands and is being treated at Leiden University Medical Center.
I do despair sometimes at the inability of DRC citizens to help themselves. After he appeared on local radio talking about the Bundibugyo Ebolavirus outbreak and ways people can protect themselves, politician Marie-Celestin Karondwa was beaten to death and his house set ablaze. On the same day an attack elsewhere on a handwashing facility resulted in the death of at least one person. Although some communities do accept Ebola is real and it is a virus, other areas of DRC have not yet caught on, and still believe it to be a curse or a conspiracy by the authorities. WHO state that since their last report 264 of the 372 reported deaths occurred in communities and just 108 in treatment centres.
Scientists have spent 6 years warning us about health conditions that could be affected or caused by COVID infection, based on what we provably know to be true. We know for a fact COVID can attack and change the blood, lungs, heart, brain, kidneys, immune system, gut, digestive system and various other cells in the body, we have multiple evidence to prove it.
The UK NHS have released most recent data regarding new diagnoses and 1GoodTern has compiled a massive thread on Twitter with graphs to show the worst increases over the past 2-6 years. It’s pretty grim. There are a lot of very obvious huge increases since COVID came along, and a lot of huge increases just in the past 2-3 years, when younger and working people in the UK have not had access to COVID vaccination, and are probably catching it for the umpteenth time.
I can't possibly list everything, you can look at the NHS data or the thread yourself, but it includes pretty much anything you can think of. The following show an increase of at least 40% since 2020: Early onset AND all ages Alzheimer's, vascular dementia, mental and behavioural issues due to addiction or drug use (including tobacco), depression, phobias, anxiety, migraine, back and knee problems. Disorders of the nervous system, eye and eyelid disorders, hearing loss, several heart problems (including myocarditis), several pneumonias and bronchitis (including caused by RSV). Non-allergic asthma, tooth problems (including chronic gingivitis), skin problems, hair loss, auto-immune diseases, arthritis, osteoporosis, disruptions to metabolism, diabetes, thyroid problems. Prostate problems, kidney problems, cystitis, breast disorders, endometriosis, blood disorders including anaemia. Scabies, intestinal infections, E Coli, TB...
The UK's outbreak of Bluetongue virus in animals is our worst ever, with as many cases this season as in the past 3 years added together. Up until 5th October there have been 3,081 confirmed cases of bluetongue serotype 3 (BTV-3) or unspecified serotype in the 2026 to 2027 season. A case is a 'premises' and may involve one or more animals.
England - 2,561
Wales - 473
Scotland - 47
N. Ireland - 0
Bluetongue is spread by biting midges. It originated in Africa and the warming climate has allowed it to blow over to the UK, first arriving in 2023. It causes disease in ruminants (sheep, cattle, deer, goats, bison etc) and camelids (llamas, alpacas). Occasionally other animals can be infected if they eat infected raw meat. Symptoms include ulcers or sores in the mouth and nose, drooling, discharge from the eyes or nose, swelling of the lips, tongue, head and neck, fever, and pregnancies do not go well. In severe cases it can be fatal.
There are vaccines available and licensed in the UK, however as they've traditionally not been needed in great number, distribution may have delays, and of course there is a cost - around £5.50 per cow.
H5N1 Avian Flu is on the move with migrating birds, and there are a few early arrivals. The UK has reported our first infection of the season, in backyard poultry on the Isle of Lewis in Scotland. The US has reported 21 infected flocks in the last 30 days (12 commercial, 9 backyard) and a newly infected cattle herd in Texas.
Australia is obviously still trying to manage their first H5N1 season. To date there have been 685 confirmed infections in wildlife/groups of wildlife (including several mass bird deaths, mostly on Southern Islands). Most of the infections are in birds and sea life, as well as 2 red foxes.
A 5th person has died from measles in Pennsylvania this year.
As of this week Pennsylvania had recorded 1,004 confirmed measles cases so far in 2026. This is the first US state to confirm over 1,000 cases in a single year in 35 years. Less than 1% of those infected were vaccinated. All 5 of the people who have died were not vaccinated.
The CDC reports that s of October 8th 2026, 4,080 confirmed measles cases were reported in the United States in 2026.
Vaccination is 97% effective at preventing you catching measles, often for life. It is safe, we have 55 years worth of studies and reports to show us this.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has declared a State Disaster Emergency over the ongoing measles outbreak. It is particularly affecting under-immunised, rural communities, with 92 cases reported since July 15th.
Researchers from the International Agency for Research on Cancer in France published a paper last week in The Lancet which shows that in 2024 around 12% of new cases of cancer were caused by 12 cancer-causing infections. Around 2.3 MILLION new diagnoses.
- Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) - previously known as Campylobacter - a bacteria which infects the stomach, was responsible for 4% of cancers.
- HPV (Human papillomavirus) also caused 4% of cancers. (Vaccination of young people is proving extremely effective, we have a genuine chance to eradicate this.)
- Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) caused 1% of cancers.
- The other infections studied were responsible for less than 1% of cancers each, and included Hepatitis B virus (HBV), Hepatitis C virus (HCV), Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus, Schistosoma haematobium, Human T-cell lymphotropic virus, Opisthorchis viverrine, Clonorchis sinensis, Merkel cell polyomavirus and HIV.
Japan has a nationwide flu outbreak. The figures were less last week than the one before, but expected to rise and with over 21,000 cases in total, enough for the Health Ministry to announce an outbreak and ask the public to take caution.
Several counties in Florida have declared local emergencies over Dengue Fever. In total this year Florida has reported 296 locally-acquired cases, more than at any time than since the 1940's. 282 cases are in the Tampa Bay area, with 259 in Hillsborough County. Officials have also confirmed the death in September of an 80 year old from Dengue. Spread by mosquitoes in hot, temperate climates, the rising average temperatures have made conditions in Florida perfect. Mosquito control crews will continue with location and treatment efforts for at least the next 2 weeks, including spraying of potential breeding locations.
The U.N. Declaration on Preparing for Future Pandemics hasn't yet been finalised, after the EU and US disagreed with wording.
The European Union said it crossed “red lines” regarding intellectual property - “technology transfer must be voluntary and on mutually agreed terms”.
The Trump administration / US CDC said it included “divisive ideologies that lack definitional consensus”, which sounds like a garble sentence to me. They requested removal of mentions of 'equity', 'solidarity' and 'universal access to sexual and reproductive health care services', which sounds like it might just be bigotry to me.
Two children who drank raw goat milk from the same farm in California were hospitalised with severe E.Coli infections that developed into haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). At least one of them required a ventilator, dialysis and blood transfusions, but both survived.
The farm did not have the appropriate testing and licence to sell milk for human consumption, yet both sets of parents told them the milk was for their children, with one even having a lengthy exchange by email.
The farm was not fined, and was allowed to continue selling the milk as long as it was clearly labelled for animal consumption only.
Both sets of parents have filed civil lawsuits against the farm.
A new study of almost 3.7 million Swedes has looked at the extent infections in pregnancy can cause neurodevelopmental conditions, including autism.
Most infections are prevented from crossing to the baby, but a rare few can get past the placenta. These are known as TORCH infections, and include toxoplasmosis, syphilis, rubella, cytomegalovirus (CMV) and herpes simplex virus. We have known for decades or longer that they can have a profound effect on the baby.
Researchers studied 3,666,002 people born between 1987 and 2021. 975 had a confirmed TORCH infection before birth.
Compared to the others, those with a TORCH infection were 7 times as likely to be diagnosed with an intellectual disability, and 3 times as likely to be diagnosed with autism.
If diagnosed while pregnant there are drugs which can reduce the potential effects of toxoplasmosis, syphilis, cytomegalovirus (CMV) and herpes simplex virus. A confirmed diagnosis in the parent does not guarantee a child will be infected, or that the infection will negatively affect them. Many children show no signs of having had a TORCH infection.
Rubella thankfully can be vaccinated against, and it's incredibly effective, thereby proving that vaccines can actually prevent autism.
"Cholera deaths increased by 30% in 2025. This marks the highest annual number of cholera deaths reported to WHO since 1999. Seven countries - Angola, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen - accounted for around 90% of all reported cholera cases and deaths globally."
WHO
In much better news, data also showed that vaccination has transformed the fight against meningococcal meningitis, one of the main causes of bacterial meningitis, with a 99% drop in cases since vaccination was introduced in 2010.
After leading WHO during the hardest and most tumultuous period in its 78 year history, through COVID, social media backlash and the USA leaving the organisation, Dr Tedros is stepping down and the hunt for a replacement is on.
At present there are 6 known prospective candidates for the role of Director-General, there may be more because at this stage they do not have to announce anything publicly:
- Dr Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, former frontline worker for MSF, nominated by Belgium
- Dr Hanan Balkhy, paediatric infectious disease specialist, former WHO Assistant Director-General for AMR, and EMRO Regional Director, nominated by Saudi Arabia.
- Dr Hanan Al Kuwari, former Minister of Public Health and long-serving Managing Director of Hamad Medical Corporation, nominated by Qatar.
- Budi Sadikin, currently Health Minister, nuclear physicist and former CEO of Indonesia’s largest bank, nominated by Indonesia.
- Dr María Neira, long-serving Director of WHO’s Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, nominated by Spain.
- Dr Gevorg Tamamyan, Armenian paediatric oncologist, nominated by Botswana.
Nominees have a lengthy and involved interview process, including questions from member states and live answer sessions beginning in November. In January 2027 they will be reduced to 3 candidates by the 34-member Executive Board, and in May the appointee will be chosen by secret ballot. They take up the position in August.
Uganda has held a massive national catch up immunisation campaign to vaccinate children aged 9 months to 5 years against measles and rubella. From 1st to 5th October they vaccinated 8,285,835 children. An incredible achievement. Well done to everyone involved.
It is the weekend, and in Galloway the schools break up for 2 weeks today, which my one remaining schoolchild is very happy about. We shall be taking time over the next 2 weeks to stay up late watching movies and eating snacks, and generally settling into the Autumn with a cosy fire. Obviously the dog will still get me up at 7am, but you can't have everything... I hope you have something nice planned for yourself - you have earnt it, and the shorter days make it even more important.
Unless something overly exciting happens, I shall be back in 2 weeks. Until then...
Ventilate Rooms Often, Test Your Heating, Save The NHS...
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Sources COVID
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
UK Health Data
UK latest COVID cases UPDATES THURSDAY 4pm
GP surveillance England Primary Care
https://www.rcgp.org.uk/representing-you/research-at-rcgp/research-surveillance-centre/public-health-data
US CDC respiratory dashboard
https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/index.html
Reference pages H5N1
https://bnonews.com/index.php/human-cases-of-h5n1-bird-flu/
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Measles Sit Rep US CDC
UK cases Measles
Canada Measles
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/measles-rubella/
Sources Images
Uganda mass immunisation campaign image
WHO openly request further information from Russia regarding pneumonia of unknown origin.
Repeated COVID infections damage the immune system
You are enough, just as you are
Uganda mass immunisation campaign image
UK NHS book your Men B vaccination today
Kenya Ebola guidance
COVID NOIDS image gwladwr
No cure for rabies once symptoms appear image WHO
Sources Text
COVID FLU UK
COVID Sit Rep 8th Oct
National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report: 8 October 2026 (week 41) - GOV.UK
COVID NI
Scotland COVID
Scotland COVID dashboard
Wastewater reporting paused in NI
What is 'American Covid'? Symptoms to look out for as cases soar - Manchester Evening News
Flu UK ahead of the curve
https://x.com/PJeffcock/status/2108206968439714213
Critical incidents UK hospitals
NHS plea as flu and Covid-19 vaccine programme begins - BBC News
Pharmacists restrict flu shot to over 65s due to shortage
PLAGUE
WHO openly request further information from Russia regarding pneumonia of unknown origin.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ContagionCuriosity/s/dqFSrD3GbD
Plague important info Angie Rasmussen
US 'watching closely' after plague researcher dies in Russia
Notes from the Field: Fatal Pneumonic Plague — Coconino County, Arizona
CNN Plague by the numbers
Beacon report on plague patient Russia
Researcher at Russian plague laboratory dies of ‘unknown’ infection | CNN Monday 5th October
Plague Russia Friday 2nd October
Weekend 3rd 4th Oct
Yersinia Pestis is not a virus, it's a bacteria.
Ridiculous to suggest cancelling flights or banning people. Plague is already in the US, and it's actually quite hard to catch.
More info on plague outbrEAK
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/2106683813053047187
UPDATE on pneumonic plague outbreak at the BSL-3 lab in Siberia - no updates from local media.
https://x.com/AnnieJacobsen/status/2106608764279554048
Transport of non-voluntary people for isolation
https://x.com/AnnieJacobsen/status/2106172807273206035
197 isolated
Bizarrely Annie Jacobsen just published a book with almost exactly this scenario
https://x.com/grok/status/2106404622763987292
Wednesday 7th October
WHO openly request further information from Russia regarding pneumonia of unknown origin.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ContagionCuriosity/s/dqFSrD3GbD
7th US CDC warn people about pneumonic plague
Ebola spreads to Kenya
Kenya press conference Ebola
Kenya Ebola spread
Kenya ebola patient
Kenya angry at failed screening of ebola patient
Latest Ebola WHO
Latest Ebola UK HSA
MSF staff member infected
DRC politician beaten to death after radio appearance about Ebola outbreak | Ebola | The Guardian
Patient Data NHS 2025-2026
1GoodTern beginning of thread
1GoodTern mid thread
https://x.com/1goodtern/status/2104857705613578637
Latest situation Bluetongue UK
Worst ever outbreak of bluetongue hits British farms | Farming | The Guardian
Bluetongue UK Gov
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/bluetongue
Vaccination bluetongue
Pennsylvania 5th measles death
https://x.com/BNOFeed/status/2105375573086249066
US Measles CDC
5th person in Pennsylvania dies from measles
Pennsylvania reports 5th desth from measles
Pennsylvania total over 1,000
NY Gov. Hochul declares state disaster emergency over ongoing measles outbreak - ABC7 New York
Japan hit by nationwide flu outbreak - The Japan Times
Dengue fever outbreak prompts Florida counties to declare state of emergency | Florida | The Guardian
Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties declare states of emergency to battle dengue fever | WUSF
Tampa Bay Dengue
Florida Dengue outbreak
million new cancer cases caused by infections in 2024 study
Cancer: One in eight cases worldwide caused by infections like Epstein-Barr, study finds | The BMJ
More than 2 million new cancer cases caused by infections in 2024,
Diseases cause 12% of cancers
1 in 8 cancer cases worldwide is caused by infections, study suggests | CBC News
Pandemic accord COVID treaty WHO
U.S. Rejects U.N. Declaration on Preparing for Future Pandemics - The New York Times
WHO pandemic accord
Raw Goat Milk — California Farm Later Allowed to Resume Sales as 'Pet Food'
TORCH infections and neurodevelopmental outcomes
TORCH infections in pregnancy and autism
WHO Cholera Bacterial meningitis and plague
WHO Cholera and Bacterial meningitis
'Vulnerable' WHO begins process of picking new director-general
WHO Director-General nominees
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