COVID-19, Long COVID and Other Health and Virus UK and World News Update 14th November 2025
Latest UK Health Security Agency (HSA) messaging is that "influenza activity showed mixed trends and is circulating at low levels – this is an unusually early start of the influenza season". They add that circulation remains high in children and young adults.
COVID-19 activity decreased, still baseline levels. RSV activity increased, still baseline levels.
"Emergency department attendances for influenza-like-illness remained stable", but "influenza-confirmed acute respiratory infection incidents increased". Of influenza viruses subtyped, the majority were A(H3N2).
There is a lot on flu today, so hopefully it all makes sense... Sir Jim Mackey, current head of NHS England, has warned that this winter will be “one of the toughest ever faced”. He told BBC Health Correspondent Hugh Pym that “from December through to March our hospitals will be at capacity”. Well that's not very positive is it? Here's why he said it...
Flu - the H3N2 "drifted strain"...
Currently each year 4 flu types account for almost all of the seasonal Winter human cases. They are Flu A (H1N1 and H3N2) and Flu B (Victoria and Yamagata). Like COVID, Flu A gains mutations over time and the family tree branches out into clades and sub-clades.
The Flu A H3N2 clade which we were expecting across the Northern hemisphere this Winter has unusually raised its game. Over the past 5 months it has developed 7 mutations, which are all fairly minor alone, but will make a difference. It has 'drifted' away from what we were expecting. It looks like it can bypass immunity more easily and there's a small possibility it could even be slightly more severe.
The BBC has an interview with Professor Derek Smith, director of the centre for pathogen evolution at the University of Cambridge. He says the usual flu R number is 1.2 , this flu is 1.4 - doesn't seem a lot, but if you remember how R numbers work (it's the number of people each infected person infects on average), and think about how that translates with exponential spread (each 1.4 infects another 1.4, who infect another 1.4 etc) it will make a notable difference.
Flu - in the Southern hemisphere Winter is just ending...
Before the new mutations even reached them, the Southern hemisphere really suffered during their 2025 Winter over the past few months. It was a long flu season. Australia had their worst flu season on record.
Winter is still on the way for the Northern hemisphere but, in the UK, Japan and China, flu season arrived 3 or 4 weeks early and with a bang. If what happened the Southern hemisphere repeats, it may be a very lengthy season rather than just an earlier one.
Flu - Vaccine efficacy...
Early each year decisions are made on which flu clades are likely to be most prevalent in the coming Winter, and vaccines are created to target them specifically.
Flu vaccinations in the Southern hemisphere were found to be almost exactly 50% effective - which is not in any way horrific, pretty average. There are worries that the H3N2 mutations which have occurred since then will make flu vaccinations less effective in the Northern hemisphere.
Good news is that early UK Health Security Agency data suggests the 2025 flu jab (which protects against H3N2, H1N1 and Flu B) will still be good, despite the "drifted strain" of H3N2.
"Our analysis shows that this season’s vaccines are offering effective protection against severe flu – children are around 70 to 75% less likely to attend or be admitted to hospital with flu if vaccinated and adults are around 30 to 40% less likely to attend or be admitted. This is similar to what we see most years with flu vaccines and continues to demonstrate that flu vaccines remain the best protection against flu."
This is reassuring, as it seems it probably averages similar to the Southern hemisphere's result. To shrink your chance of becoming severely ill or dying by 30-75%, plus reduce your chance of passing on flu to other people you care about, it is well worth the shot.
H3N2 is traditionally particularly hard on older people, so please encourage anyone eligible for vaccination to take up the offer, and look out for elderly relatives and friends this Winter.
A gentleman in Grays Harbour, Washington State, has primarily tested positive for Avian Flu. Further testing is underway to confirm the diagnosis. He is an older person and has been hospitalised with flu symptoms, but is said to be stable.
Nothing has changed, there's no sign of human to human transmission, and we already know people can catch Avian Flu. It is the first case for a long while, and we are back into flu season. No word yet on how he may have caught it, and his contacts are being monitored.
The UK Government plan to streamline health services and save money, by getting rid of NHS England and transferring all healthcare to the Department of Health and Social Care, will cost around £1 BILLION in redundancies. The NHS had hoped for extra money to fund this, but it was denied. Now the Treasury have said the NHS are allowed to overspend and recoup over the next few years, so it's all going ahead as planned.
Over the next 2 years around 18,000 NHS England admin and managerial staff will lose their jobs, as well as other staff at local integrated care boards (ICBs).
The BBC are reporting that over 1,500 healthcare assistants in East Yorkshire and northern Lincolnshire hospitals are being moved up a pay level and will get 4 years back pay because they have been 'working above their pay grade'. The deal was negotiated by trade union Unison and the NHS Humber Health Partnership, and follows a similar restructuring for maternity support workers at Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS Foundation Trust earlier this year.
Meanwhile UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting has compared the British Medical Association (BMA) to a cartel, by opposing tax rises for the higher paid. He pointed out that most NHS (and other) workers will never be able to earn what a Senior Consultant earns, and wages may not be at the level they were in 2008, but they aren't the only ones in this position, and they have had a 30% pay increase over the past 3 years.
Resident Doctors go on strike again today after talks broke down.
Wes: "...it is always true, and especially during winter, it puts untold pressure on other NHS staff who are picking up the pieces for the damage and disruption that resident doctors and the BMA are inflicting on the service."
They really do not get on...
Wastewater monitoring from Wastewaterscan would suggest that COVID is on a fairly steep rise (from a low start) in the USA - in the South, the Midwest, and the Northeast. Sadly the US Government shutdown is making it pretty hard to find out for sure. Even the CDC page only goes up to 20th September.
GISAID is also not being updated, making tracking of any COVID variants in the US a complete mystery. Still, as a US leader once said 'if we don't test, we don't get cases', so there's nothing to see here...
Ethiopia has reported 8 suspected cases of viral haemorrhagic fever. Sadly 6 of the patients have already died, including a doctor and a nurse. WHO has deployed an emergency team to assess and help with care and testing, as well as deliver PPE and other supplies. At this moment we don’t really know any more.
Viral haemorrhagic fevers refer to a group of epidemic prone diseases that include Marburg and Ebola, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Lassa fever. They have a very high mortality rate, although you should bear in mind that in Ethiopia healthcare facilities may be expensive and a very long distance away, so often people will not go until they are incredibly sick.
All evidence suggests or proves beyond doubt that vaccinations and paracetamol (acetaminophen, Tylenol) do NOT cause autism, however there is evidence that sometimes certain infections in pregnancy can raise the chances of your child having a neurodevelopmental disorder.
Researchers have studied children born at the Massachusetts Mass General Brigham Hospital, to see if COVID during pregnancy affected development. They found that during the research period 4.8% (around 1 in 20) of the pregnant people tested positive for COVID. Of the babies born after COVID exposure (16.3%, around 1 in 7) received a neurodevelopmental diagnosis by 36 months after birth, compared with 9.7% (around 1 in 10) of unexposed offspring. The largest effects were seen when unborn babies were exposed in the third trimester, and in male babies.
Neurodevelopmental disorders is an umbrella term for a huge variety of conditions, each with a spectrum of associated behaviours, and all variations of how severely it will affect that person's daily living. It covers everything from ASD (Autism spectrum disorder) and ADHD, to Tourette's and tics, communication or learning disorders, intellectual disabilities etc.
It is sensible to have a COVID vaccination before or during pregnancy, and you should be cautious around COVID (or any other viruses really) when you are pregnant.
Massachusetts researchers have been very busy, because Massachusetts General Hospital researchers have published a study on Long COVID and adolescents. They found that risk of long COVID was 36% lower in 12-17 year olds who were vaccinated within 6 months before their first COVID infection, than it was for their unvaccinated peers.
The study authors note that COVID vaccination of (in this case) young people not only reduces chance of illness, severe illness and spreading COVID, it has a very valuable secondary preventative role:
"Given the profound impact LC can have on the health and well-being of adolescents and the lack of available treatments, these findings support vaccination as an effective and meaningful prevention strategy for LC."
Epstein Barr, which has recently become a suspected trigger for Long COVID and MS, also looks like it could be a trigger for Lupus (it additionally triggers certain cancers). A study out this week looked at links we knew were there, and investigated exactly what it was that the Epstein Barr virus did to trigger Lupus. The researchers found that it "reprograms autoreactive antinuclear antigen B cells to drive autoimmunity". It basically reprograms cells to attack your own body.
Epstein Barr is a virus commonly caught in childhood, most of us have encountered it, and it can in some people develop into what Americans call Mono and the UK call Glandular Fever (Mononucleosis).
Researchers have been working on a vaccine for decades, but unfortunately it's a tricky one as EB has different parts which invade different parts of cells. A promising mRNA vaccine from Moderna is currently in the pipeline, and now we have some evidence it's causing Lupus, hopefully we'll see more money and time pumped into this one, because a vaccine could change a huge amount of lives.
Scientists from Trinity College Dublin have created a no-needle Whooping Cough vaccination that is administered using a nasal spray. Not only does it protect from severe illness, but even better, it stops people spreading Whooping Cough.
Whooping Cough is a bacterial infection, and current vaccinations don't actually stop it from multiplying in the nose and throat, but the nasal spray hits it where it's at - boom.
It's a long way yet before this is available to humans, more testing is needed, but early results sure look promising.
Current UKHSA figures show 502 cases of Whooping Cough (Pertussis) in England alone in the first half of 2025, and one infant died. It can be particularly dangerous for tiny children and babies, who have very small airways. In the UK vaccination is offered to help protect newborn infants between 20 and 32 weeks of pregnancy, and the baby is offered a jab as part of their first immunisations at 8, 12 and 16 weeks.
While we are on Whooping Cough, diagnoses in Texas, USA, have soared to 4 times as many as last year. The Department of State Health Services (DSHS) have issued an alert after recording over 3,500 cases up to the end of October. They are reminding the public that pregnant people and young children should get their vaccinations on schedule, and that anyone catching Whooping Cough should stay at home until you have completed at least 5 days of antibiotics.
It isn't just human flu which arrived early, as I said last report, this season's H5N1 Avian Flu has already arrived and it's hitting hard. Orders to keep poultry indoors are coming across Europe, as are reports of more infections. As of 1 week ago, according to Nigel Sweetnam, chair of the Irish Farmers' Association National Poultry Committee on Radio 1, 15 out of 27 European Union countries had recorded bird flu outbreaks on farms this season, with a total of 688 outbreaks - compared to 189 at the same point last year. Germany appears worst hit so far, with 58 outbreaks on farms between August and the end of October, compared to 8 last year. Poland was second, with 15 outbreaks.
Poland and Germany have yet to demand birds be housed indoors, although some German states have imposed rulings. Ireland, France, England, Belgium and Spain all have mandatory housing orders in place.
No wonder England has imposed a mandatory housing order. Just in the last 10 days UK outbreaks have been confirmed in:
Large commercial poultry premises near Wells-Next-The-Sea, North Norfolk
Small commercial poultry flock near Corby Glen, South Kesteven, Lincolnshire
Captive birds near Preesall, Wyre, Lancashire
Small non-commercial poultry flock near Kirkham, Fylde, Lancashire
Large commercial poultry flock near Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire, Wales
Commercial poultry premises near Pomeroy, County Tyrone, Northern Ireland
Commercial poultry premises near Lisnaskea, County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland
Large commercial poultry premises near Feltwell, King’s Lynn and West Norfolk
Large commercial poultry premises near Attleborough, Breckland, Norfolk
Large commercial poultry premises near Alford, East Lindsey, Lincolnshire
A second large commercial poultry premises near Thirsk, Thirsk and Malton, North Yorkshire
Commercial poultry near Hallow, Malvern Hills, Worcestershire
Commercial poultry at a premises near Welshpool, Powys in Wales
Large commercial poultry flock at a premises near Lanark, South Lanarkshire, Scotland
Large commercial poultry unit near Woodbridge, East Suffolk
Small backyard flock of captive birds near Gosforth, Cumberland, Cumbria
Large commercial flock of poultry near Poringland, South Norfolk, Norfolk
That is an horrific list, and the UK total outbreaks for this season (since the beginning of October) now stands at 40 - more than double 2 weeks ago. Expect a whole UK housing order any moment now...
The US is in a bit of a wilderness as everything is scaled back due to cuts in surveillance and communication, and the lengthy Government shutdown, but APHIS have still recorded 76 newly infected flocks in the last 30 days (38 commercial, 38 backyard).
In better H5N1 bird flu news, an 'H5' nasal flu vaccine undergoing phase 1 human trials is looking really good. There's a great piece on this in CIDRAP (University of Minnesota). The more usual vaccine jabs in the arm "mainly trigger systemic immune responses that protect against symptomatic illness when well-matched to circulating strains. But they may be less effective at preventing person-to-person transmission than intranasal vaccines, which stimulate immunity at the infection site".
Again, respiratory illness, hit it where it lives.
The nasal spray was found to offer a good immune response which was also 'broad' - protecting against a range of different H5N1 Avian flu strains. Early days, and this was just in 40 healthy human adults, but phase 2 human trials are on the way.
Avian flu is hitting some of the world's rarest birds very hard. Experts in Iceland are warning it could spell the end of the Icelandic Gyrfalcon if humans don't intervene. Already endangered, they numbered around 2,000, and over the last few years have been plagued by wave after wave of flu. Now there are only around 500 birds left.
I haven't posted about the Canadian ostriches infected with H5N1 Avian Flu before, but it's been a monumental saga that's lasted almost a year. Unlike poultry, most Ostriches survive infection, but authorities insisted they had to be culled for national security. The owners and an ever-increasing band of protestors insisted they could be used to examine immunity and maybe even offer a form of immunity via eggs, supplements etc. This has gone through court after court, and last week the ostriches were no more.
Despite having every sympathy with the ostriches and their owners, and even the protestors, there are sensible reasons why they had to be culled.
It is Canadian law that they are culled, and the owners knew this. The owners did not report the infection themselves, so they haven't proven trustworthy or honest. The owners are not scientists, so any 'supplements' they created might not be safe, and almost definitely couldn't actually work (you can't get immunity to a flu virus by eating antibodies). Ostriches can carry H5N1, and pass it on, or recombine it with different flu variants before passing it on. It can be hard to find flu-carrying ostriches by taking blood or other samples, so you can't ever be certain they're safe. Leaving them alive is unfair to local poultry farms, wild birds and mammals, and the humans who live or work with them or nearby, who risk becoming infected. It's unfair to the entire world, because that infection could be the start of a pandemic. Infection doesn't need close contact. It can be spread by the dust from infected poop blowing in the breeze.
Sorry ostriches, you were never going to win. RIP.
Mauritania and Senegal have an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever.
WHO: "Between 20 September and 30 October 2025, a total of 404 confirmed human cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF), including 42 deaths, were reported by national health authorities in two West African countries: Mauritania and Senegal. RVF is a zoonotic disease, which mainly affects animals, but can also infect humans. The majority of human infections result from contact with the blood or organs of infected animals, but human infections have also resulted from the bites of infected mosquitoes. To date, no human-to-human transmission of RVF has been documented."
RVF is endemic in both of these countries, with cases in animals fairly regularly (160 known animals infected in Senegal this year). Infections in humans do occur occasionally. In animals RVF is always severe, in humans it ranges from very mild flu-like symptoms through to often fatal haemorrhagic fevers. Most of the human cases in this outbreak are in Senegal, but in Mauritania 14 of the 46 confirmed patients have died - so either it's particularly severe, or infected people have been missed, hopefully the latter.
Wastewater monitoring in Germany has detected wild poliovirus in the Hamburg region.
The Robert Koch Institute: "The last case of poliomyelitis acquired in Germany through wild poliovirus was recorded in 1990; the last imported cases were registered in 1992."
This is a blow to efforts to eradicate Polio. As yet no-one knows who the patient is, where they caught it or even whether they are a permanent resident, so preventing spread is reliant on luck and vaccinations.
LA county, USA, has already reported 61 rabid bats in 2025 (the highest year total was 68 in 2021). People are scared of bats, and it isn’t just because they can fly into your face when you walk round the corner of your house at dusk (this has happened to me), or because of their association with vampires (this has not happened to me). Beautiful and intriguing as they are, they carry lots of nasties they can pass on to humans, including (depending on where you are) coronaviruses, rabies, Lyssavirus and more. Don't handle them or mess with where they live unless under advice from a professional, and if you are ever scratched or bitten by a bat, rinse well with water and report it to a medical professional asap.
Move over Michelle Mone, we have more UK 'VIP lane' COVID PPE scandal arising from information uncovered by the UK COVID Inquiry... A Guardian newspaper investigation has found that logistics firm Uniserve (with no medical supply experience) managed to secure £1.4 billion in COVID-19 PPE contracts through the
government's VIP lane - through Conservative peer Lord Theodore Agnew and
contacts involving MP Julia Lopez. Over £178 million of the supplied equipment was unused by the NHS due to quality problems.
In another development, financier Tim Horlick of Avanda Capital faces arrest and an HMRC investigation for alleged tax evasion related to his £255 million PPE deal. Half the masks he supplied were rejected. Seems he'd have been better off just doing the honest and sensible thing and authorising a refund.
It is the weekend, and it's only my blooming birthday today, so I am off to celebrate with beverages and cake and things. I'll be demanding nice things all weekend, and I hope you have something nice planned too. You've earned it, and those little treats can make the whole week worthwhile. If it isn't your weekend, make sure you treat yourself when it is. I shall be back in 2 weeks, until then...
Ventilate Often, Keep Warm, Save The NHS...
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Sources COVID
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
UK Health Data
https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/
UK latest COVID cases UPDATES THURSDAY 4pm
GP surveillance England Primary Care
UK Norovirus weekly update
US CDC respiratory dashboard
Reference pages H5N1
https://bnonews.com/index.php/human-cases-of-h5n1-bird-flu/
https://www.paho.org/en/topics/avian-influenza
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Image sources
Measles long term effects WHO image
UK image of who is eligible for COVID vax this Winter
Norovirus image
151125 UK HSA flu jab good image
Sources:
UK flu update Thursday
Hugh Pym, BBC Health Correspondent
Flu season hits Prof Derek Smith
UK Gov Flu vaccine efficacy 2025 Autumn early data
Flu vaccine efficacy
Flu surge triggers ‘urgent NHS SOS’ amid warning thousands could die this winter - Mirror Online
UK HSA FLU jab good
Canada Flu Winter 2015 could be bad
A flu diary current flu situation
Why next years flu shot may not be as good as it should be
Flu types CDC
Male Washington State Avian Flu
Man with bird flu, Washington
Treasury say NHS can overspend for redundancies
Cuts to NHS England go ahead
https://news.sky.com/story/thousands-of-nhs-staff-to-be-made-redundant-after-funding-agreed-13468879
Hospital staff get four years back pay and promotions in new deal - BBC News
Doctors' union acting like cartel and opposing taxes - Streeting - BBC News
Resident doctors strike BMA interview
COVID wastewater USA
CDC COVID wastewater
WHO report Ethiopia haemorrhagic fever 8 cases
Ethiopia haemorrhagic fever
Ethiopia haemorrhagic fever 6 out of 8 patients have died.
ND and COVID in pregnancy study
Kids exposed to COVID in utero may be at higher risk for autism, other brain problems
COVID infection and Autism etc
Covid in pregnancy tied to autism, developmental issues, study says
Pre birth exposure to COVID - great explainer
Adolescents and Long COVID and vaccinations
Adolescents vaccinations study
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Epstein Barr Virus may trigger Lupus
Epstein Barr Lupus study
Epstein Barr Lupus study explainer
Epstein Barr Wiki has a million links
Mono CDC
Nasal spray whooping cough
Newborn died England Whooping Cough
Vaccine schedule UK
Whooping cough texas
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H5N1 Europe
Spain locks down poultry 13th November
Indoor housing Spain
Text
Spain H5N1
Europe mandatory housing orders - Germany
UK avian flu total 19
Germanys bird flu wave set to move South says Freidrich knoffler institute
US bird flu surge with links
Intranasal vaccine against H5 avian flu provokes broad immune response in adults in phase 1 trial
Icelandic Gyrfalcon
Last stand in bird flu Ostrich flu land
Ostriches
The ostriches are no more
The ostriches were supported by RFK Jr
Canada pushes on with ‘complete depopulation’ plan to cull 400 ostriches | Canada | The Guardian
Angela Rasmussen has written extensively about these Ostriches, you can find her on Substack at RasmussenRetorts
Senegal and Mauritania RVF
Rift Valley fever
https://www.reddit.com/r/ContagionCuriosity/s/7AT2fMfgA6
Rift Valley Fever WHO
Disease outbreak news WHO Rift Valley Fever
Rift valley fever outbreak in senegal and mauritania
Wild polio found in German wastewater monitoring.
Hamburg Polio
LA county bats rabies
Uniserve COVID Inquiry Guardian investigation
Tim Horlick arrest PPE masks HMRC
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