COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 22nd December 2023
World COVID Statistics: 700,057,262 officially reported cases and 6,958,594 losses of life.
"UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance."
John Roberts, COVID Actuary.
We expected a rise, but yowsers. Aren't we glad we got our surveillance data back... erm... hmm.
Here from the UKHSA:
"There has been an increase in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland during the 2 weeks leading up to 13 December 2023."
- England, estimate 4.3%, equivalent to 2,333,000 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. Around 1 in 24 people.
- Scotland, estimate 4.1%, equivalent to 215,000 individuals. Around 1 in 24 people.
- Prevalence was higher for individuals aged between 18 to 44 years than for those aged over 65, and was estimated to have increased across all age groups in the 2 weeks up to 13 December 2023.
- In some areas of London prevalence looks like it might (last week) be as high as 1 in every 12 people.
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 10th February 2023
World COVID Statistics: 677,186,916 reported cases and 6,779,665 losses of life.
"Devastating earthquakes struck Türkiye and Syria, injuring thousands of people. WHO has activated its emergency medical teams network, now on the ground delivering health care to those in need."
Monday 6th February's earthquakes are so far known to have killed over 22,000 people, injured over 80,000 more, and they have left hundreds of thousands of people homeless in snowy conditions.
Volunteer teams from more than 25 countries are already there, and 95 countries had offered help by this morning. Volunteers include over 30 search & rescue teams, engineers, medical staff, firefighters and vets, and they are still pulling people out alive.
Thank you to all of them.
Anyone wanting to make donations, please use official agencies such as the 15 members of the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC). DEC agencies work together to ensure the correct sort of aid is targeted exactly where it's needed most. DEC includes many of the big names, including the Red Cross, Save The Children, Oxfam, CAFOD, Christian Aid and International Rescue.
"Over the past few weeks there have been several reports of mammals including minks, otters, foxes and sea lions having been infected with H5N1 avian influenza. H5N1 has spread widely in wild birds and poultry for 25 years but the recent spill over to mammals needs to be monitored closely.
For the moment, WHO assesses the risk to humans as low. Since H5N1 first emerged in 1996 we have only seen rare and non-sustained transmission of H5N1 to and between humans, but we cannot assume that will remain the case and we must prepare for any change in the status quo."
Dr Tedros, head of WHO, with a little warning at Wednesday's Conference On Global Health.
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Weekly Update 20th January 2023
World COVID Statistics: 672,686,930 reported cases and 6,740,521losses of life.
"I just think we're really, really, really silly if we think that our health systems are just going to come back online and just start functioning at 100% again.... because our systems have lost elasticity, they've lost resilience, not gained it. And our health workers have been through one of the worst, probably, health experiences of the last 100 years or more.
We owe them a huge debt of gratitude for what they've done for us over the last 3 years. And I don't think we're repaying that debt with the working conditions, with the protection, with the training or with the pay that they need to be able to take care of themselves and their families."
Dr Mike Ryan of WHO. Seconded. Always.
"China's COVID prevention and control is still in a time of stress, but the light is ahead, persistence is victory. I am most worried about the rural areas and farmers. Medical facilities are relatively weak in rural areas, thus prevention is difficult and the task is arduous."
Chinese leader Xi Jinping with a warning and clear indication he's worried, in a Lunar New Year speech.
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 30th December 2022
World COVID Statistics: 664,199,215 reported cases and 6,694,494 losses of life.
"I’ve worked in A&E for 22 years & seen nothing like this before.
The NHS is in a critical state. We need urgent action for sake of our staff & patients. Steve Barclay, Rishi Sunak, we need you to listen to those who know what’s happening.
Dear MPs
As an A&E Dr, I’m asking for your help. Please do a shift at your local A&E and see the reality of what’s happening to our NHS.
Not a photoshopped PR stunt but a chance to witness reality of our crumbling NHS.
Then demand change"
Dr Rob Galloway, Brighton.
Ambulance response times are now double what they were 2 years ago. Several areas have currently declared Critical Incidents due to the sheer number of people waiting for an ambulance. Last week the Welsh ambulance service apologised for leaving a 93 year old with a broken hip screaming in agony on her care home floor for 25 hours before an ambulance arrived. It was another 12 hours before she was admitted to hospital.
No-one I've spoken to seems to be able to access their GP. It took me 36 hours to obtain antibiotics for a 14 year old with a viral chest infection, bacterially infected wound and a high fever. Yesterday people in Greater Manchester were asked not to attend A&E unless you are actually at risk of death. (For goodness sake don't break an arm, and if you do, it's 111 online for advice, or call 111 if you don't have internet access).
The NHS doesn't fall over, it degrades. However you look at it, ignoring any strikes and strike days, the current delays in emergency care are causing a lot of extra people to die. It is visible in our excess deaths.
The NHS has been chronically underfunded for years. It has been sold off in favour of very expensive renting of what we need from private companies, and staffing has been allowed to drop to bare minimum levels. We didn't invest in health, we then asked people to work solidly for 2-3 years, without reward or adequate incentive, and this is where you end up.
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 11th November
2022
World COVID Statistics: 639,532,801 reported cases and 6,612,327 losses of
life.
"Does it need to be stated that infection with a pathogenic virus does not
confer a net benefit to the host? Because sometimes it feels like there is a
need to say this."
Aris Katzourakis, Professor of Evolution and Genomics at Oxford Uni, reminding
us that things which do not kill us do not always make us stronger.
"This view of relative mortality risk by age (share of all death certificates
mentioning COVID) continues to trace a pattern of decreasing ripples.
This is despite COVID prevalence being considerably higher than it was in
January 2021."
Numbers guy Paul Mainwood summing up the ONS graph nicely. It's great to be a
long way away from thousands of deaths a week, but remember low constant
ripples still mean we are losing hundreds of people every week. It isn't over,
especially for people who are at greater risk.
Latest ONS stats (to 6th November) are positive - officially reported cases
(people who test positive), hospitalisations and deaths are all DOWN on the
previous week.
Latest ONS Infection Survey random sampling is also positive. We know cases
are likely to go up with Winter, so the lower we can start off, the better.
This is a more accurate true measure, as they invite thousands of randomly
selected people for a test each week.
"The percentage of people testing positive for COVID19 decreased across all UK
countries."
- England, estimate 1,323,200, equating to 2.43% of the population, or around
1 in 40 people.
- Wales, estimate 72,400, equating to 2.38% of the population, or around 1 in
40 people.
- Northern Ireland, estimate 39,900, equating to 2.17% of the population, or
around 1 in 45 people.
- Scotland, estimate 107,300, equating to 2.04% of the population, or around 1
in 50 people.
"I believe we found room for hope in Glasgow. With one last chance to create a
plan that would limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees, we made the
promises to keep that goal within reach... And the question today is this, can
we summon the collective will to deliver them? I believe we can."
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak addressing the other delegates at the COP27
Climate Conference - which he did go to, despite saying he wouldn't. Rumour
has it he hadn't realised how important the future existence of humans was
until he saw the guest list.
NHS figures out on Thursday were eye-wateringly bad - so bad they've issued
revisions today, so sorry if I missed any alterations to averages.
1/ We have record breaking queues in A&E emergency departments:
- In October 43,792 people waited over 12 hours for a bed after a decision was
made to admit them to hospital, up an extra third from 32,776 in September.
- In October 150,922 people waited at least 4 hours, up from 131,861 in
September.
2/ We have record breaking numbers of people who have waited a long time for
treatment:
- In October a staggering 401,537, or 1 in every 18 of us, had been waiting
for over a year for treatment. Awesome.
- In good news, the number of people waiting 18 months or over has fallen
substantially - down 60% on last year.
3/ Ambulance waiting times are, as we well know, grim. For some reason this
month's English NHS stats don't include London (but they would likely be
grimmer than grim):
- In October 2022, the mean average response time for Category 1 (England
excluding London), was 9 minutes 56 seconds, with 90% within 17m 42s. Clearly
longer than the 7 minute and 15 minute targets.
Zoe Bell of Upday News points out that we haven't actually met A&E targets
since 2015 - 5 years before COVID.
UK politics continues to bow under the weight of it's own ineptitude. It's
like watching a teenager in heels trying to sneak upstairs in the dark after
15 shandies. Now our COVID-times Education Secretary and newly ordained Sir,
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang Childcatcher Gavin Williamson, has "resigned" after
accusations of bullying. It was all fun and games until someone said they
weren't happy with being told to slit their throat or jump out of a window.
(Defenestration is a rare event in the UK. More common with Russian COVID
Doctors).
Gavin said the allegations were "becoming a distraction"... err, yeah.
Okay.
According to Sky News, "a total of 80 ministers or whips have resigned or been
sacked from the government since the start of 2022". Yowch. That's some
world-beating staff turnaround...
Remember back in 2020 when 'kids didn't catch COVID'. How times have
changed... and also knowledge. Obviously kids always caught COVID. they were
just less likely to show it. Sadly although our understanding has changed,
everything else is slow to catch up, and in the UK we don't vaccinate young
children. Omicron is more severe than previous COVID strains, and you can spot
this in the unvaccinated populations, including our children.
In 2022, up to October 31st, the UK had already hospitalised more children who
are testing positive for COVID than in all of 2020 AND 2021 ADDED TOGETHER.
The UK has a lot of people with COVID at any given moment, and many of these
kids will only find out they have it when they turn up at A&E with a
broken leg or asthma attack, but it is not an impressive figure. Even if they
aren't really poorly, each bout of COVID can have a long lasting effect on
things like concentration and tiredness.
RSV is a MASSIVE problem in the Northern hemisphere as we head into our
Winter. Figures are high and rapidly rising, especially in our youngest
infants and children. This is Respiratory Syncytial Virus and it causes chest
infections and bronchiolitis, and it has hospitalised a lot of children in New
Zealand and Australia over their Winter. Keep your kids home if they are ill,
and listen regularly to their breathing in case they develop a persistent
wheeze or crackle, or begin to struggle.
A UK study has found that confidence in vaccinations has dropped across the
board - whatever your religious, educational or cultural background. All this
talk of side effects, efficacy rates, rule breaking and number fudging has
made people think more and trust less.
(Read more, all of you. Not just headlines, think about the answers you
actually want to know. If you are in doubt, get the numbers for yourself.
Google is your friend.)
Waits for Cancer care in the UK are too long. Yet another victim of the NHS
being on its knees and desperately short staffed.
The BBC has a clear article explaining that although screening is being rushed
through to try and clear the backup, lack of specialist staff to actually
oversee treatment means unnecessary delays for very anxious people, and a risk
that treatment will arrive too late.
UK Nurses WILL be going on strike, as will Civil Servants. The UK isn't alone
in this discontent. A lot of people worked solidly through COVID, risked their
health before vaccinations, saw colleagues leave through illness or
bereavement, and in return got clapped at and offered a crap pay rise.
Royal College of Nursing members at 176 NHS Organisations have voted to
strike. Dates to be arranged. Closed door meetings between brand new Junior
Government Health Ministers and nursing representatives are underway
already.
A US team have published a study looking at the difference masks make in
schools. This isn't yet peer-reviewed, but it's getting a lot of high profile
shares, which we can assume means no-one has spotted any huge errors at this
point.
They looked at schools in Boston, Massachusetts, where masks were worn by all
pupils and staff until February 2022. Two districts kept the mask mandates
until June 2022, which allows for a comparison.
They found that the districts which kept masks were poorer, with older schools
and more pupils per class. They also had "higher percentages of low-income
students, students with disabilities, and students who were English-language
learners, as well as higher percentages of Black and Latinx students and
staff".
Despite having extra risk factors, those schools which kept masks continued
with a steady amount of COVID cases, while the schools which got rid of masks
had a big increase.
'During the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded, the
lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 cases
per 1000 students and staff, which corresponded to an estimated 11,901 cases
and to 29.4% of the cases in all districts during that time.'
So there you have it (again). Masks DO make a big difference.
As reported by Channel News Asia, “China will "unswervingly" stick to its
zero-COVID policy and persevere with its "dynamic-clearing" approach to
COVID-19 cases as soon as they emerge, health officials said on Saturday (Nov
5).”
They're not having it. China still have a mandatory quarantine for arrivals
from abroad, and really do think the West is storing up problems for the
future... and it's worth noting their vaccination rate is really very low,
especially in older people.
The latest area to be locked down is part of Guangzhou, after reporting over
1,000 cases a day for the last 5 days. Around 5.6 million residents were just
told to stay home, in an attempt to prevent a whole area lockdown affecting
over 19 million people.
Despite remaining "unswerving", Chinese Health Authorities do at least review
their rules and update them. As a result they have made several changes to
their COVID policies, including reducing close contact quarantine from 7 days
at a centralised location to 5 days (plus three days at home). Rules regarding
inbound travellers and traveller quarantines have also eased.
We have heard before that our genes can make us more susceptible to severe
COVID. This week Oxford University Professor Dr James Davies has revealed
another unfortunate gene, which dates back to neanderthal times. LZTFL1 is
found in around 15% of Europeans, and 60% of Southern Asian people, and it
appears to double the risk you'll die from COVID.
In the UK your risk of succumbing to COVID is clearly greater if you are not
white - but it's been very hard to pinpoint physical reasons, as non-white
people are also more likely to live in larger or multi-generational housing,
more likely to work in high risk professions, less likely to be able to take
time off sick, more likely to be poor etc etc... all risk factors.
The US CDC have a new campaign to encourage pregnant people to get their COVID
vaccinations. The main point of the campaign is:
"Infants aged <6 months, who are ineligible for vaccination, have high
COVID-19–associated hospitalization rates compared with other pediatric age
groups."
Yes. Infants under 6 months do have high hospitalisation rates for COVID, and
in the US that has gone up by a whopping x11 since Omicron COVID took
over.
Hold on before you panic, it's a bit misleading. Younger babies catching
Omicron can show more cold or flu-like symptoms, so are more likely to be
admitted out of caution. Most importantly a "return to normality" means far,
FAR more people have COVID in the community, and as a result far, FAR more
babies are being born WITH COVID.
Despite that eleven-fold increase in hospitalisations, the CDC see no increase
in levels of severe illness. Being admitted to hospital doesn't mean they'll
become very poorly - it means they're in the right place if they do.
Getting vaccinated before or during pregnancy hasn't shown any detrimental
effect, and offers a level of protection for both the parent and newborn baby.
(And as we well know - pregnancy and COVID don't mix well at all.) Talk it
through with your healthcare professionals.
111022 Excess deaths England by week age 0-24
Ugandan schoolchildren will break up 2 weeks early on 25th November, because
of Ebola. Official case counts only include confirmed cases, and sadly when
you add on 'suspected', the numbers are not good. 8 school children have
already died from Ebola, which can have a fatality rate as high as 80% - this
outbreak is currently running at around 40-50%. According to leading expert
Helen Branswell, (Senior Infectious Diseases Writer at STAT News), the updated
total on Monday was believed to be 157 cases and 74 losses of life.
Remember the woman from Alberta, Canada, who had been refused an organ
transplant because she wouldn't get vaccinated against COVID? The Court of
Appeal have upheld that decision. They say expecting her to get up to date
relevant vaccinations is not a violation of her rights. The survival rate for
people with COVID after a recent organ transplant is greatly reduced.
Scientists have announced they've found the oldest ever known sentence written
by humans. It was written on an elephant ivory comb around 1700BCE and says:
"May this tusk root out the lice of the hair and the beard."
We really haven't changed...
Ukraine's official Christmas stamp, “Separated by war”, was created by Valeria
Mykhailova, a year 11 schoolgirl who, until becoming a refugee, lived in
Mykolaiv. It's split in two, with a young woman sitting inside a Christmassy
room alone, and an armed person in a helmet and military clothing, sitting
alone on the battlefield with gunfire around.
SchoolsWeek is reporting that the UK Government Treasury is going to be taking
back over £100 million of the money earmarked for pupil catch-up schemes, as
it hasn't been allocated this year. Schools have really struggled to access
the money, because they have to pay 40% themselves this year, and they simply
don't have it. Next year they'll be expected to pay 75% of the costs, so
frankly it's hardly worth the paperwork.
It would be nice if the underspend went towards FREE catch-up programs for our
most disadvantaged pupils. (It won't.)
In case you missed it, the UK has a new King, and it has been confirmed we
will get a one-off extra bank holiday when he has his Coronation. The
crowning, swearing oaths and all that jazz will take place on Saturday 6th
May, and the bank holiday will be on the Monday 8th May. I make that 2 proper
weekends off in a row. Nice one.
A man arrested on a COVID ward in Scotland has been ruled by an Edinburgh
Court to be an American wanted for serious sex crimes in the USA.
Nicholas Rossi claimed to be an Irish man named Arthur, and if Hollywood is
anything to go by, his accent was probably appalling. He also claimed his
tattoos (which matched the suspect) were drawn onto him while he was in a
coma.
Christmas really is on the way now. John Lewis have an absolutely excellent
campaign, supporting young people leaving care, and highlighting fostering.
Made me bawl. I've added it below.
No numbers today because it's too long already, but next week I'll be without
internet, or travelling, so it'll definitely be shorter!
It is the weekend! Huzzah. I'm definitely having treats, because it's my
birthday weekend, so I'm hoping to be very spoilt. I hope you are too. You've
earned it, and we all need things to look forward to...
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Weekly Update 4th November 2022
World COVID Statistics: 637,112,203 reported cases and 6,602,562 losses of life.
Latest ONS random sampling for the week ending 24 October is a mixed bag:
"The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in England, continued to decrease in Wales, continued to increase in Northern Ireland and the trend in the percentage of people testing positive was uncertain in Scotland."
- England, estimate 1,593,900, equating to 2.92% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.
- Wales, estimate 77,500, equating to 2.55% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.
- Northern Ireland, estimate 61,200, equating to 3.34% of the population, or around 1 in 30 people.
- Scotland, estimate 141,400, equating to 2.69% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 21st October 2022
World: 631 million reported cases and 6.5 million losses of life.
"COVAX did not fail because it was badly designed. We failed because of the greed of the north. We failed because of the greed of the pharmaceutical industry. We failed because of self-interest in certain member states, who were not prepared to share"
Dr Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation at the World Health Summit 2022.
An actual scuffle broke out in UK Parliament on Wednesday, when MPs were voting on Fracking. All the Tories were ordered to vote for fracking, which upset a lot of them, especially MPs who had literally campaigned to have it banned. Photos emerged of people being physically manhandled in to cast their vote, although apparently that was fine because they didn't actually have guns. Over 30 Tories survived without voting by hiding in a cupboard. Priti Patel and the actual Prime Minister Liz Truss were among them. Boris was abroad on holiday in the Caribbean.
Thursday lunchtime Liz was up before the 1922 Committee to plead her job, just as Boris did merely weeks earlier.
Within 2 hours she made her 89 second long resignation speech outside Downing Street and the UK is yet again being led by an invisible force.
Liz has the shortest ever time in office at just 45 days. Truly record-breaking.
3 Prime Ministers during one term in office is a weeny bit unusual, and hints towards some failures within the present incumbents. Calls for a General Election are going to be long and loud.
The UK is still reporting higher numbers of deaths than usual, 10% higher in the latest report for the week ending 7th October.
"Calculated excess deaths (1,031) were significantly higher than the number of deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (400). This is consistent with the general pattern of recent months."
COVID Actuaries.
Why? The after-effect of the pandemic is multi-pronged, and although we can say these people probably died because we had a pandemic (and we know some of them died because scans or treatments were delayed), we can't yet seem to openly admit these figures are partly because some people catch COVID and never fully recover.
Paul Mainwood
An elderly patient with a chest infection has died in an ambulance outside Fairfield Hospital in Bury, Greater Manchester. There were no beds inside to transfer them to, and despite antibiotics and other treatment in the ambulance, they suffered a fatal heart attack.
This was inevitable with patients regularly being held in ambulances in car parks for 8 hours or more, and is horrific for the patient, their relatives and the ambulance staff.
The British Medical Journal (BMJ) have published a study titled "Nurse staffing and inpatient mortality in the English National Health Service: a retrospective longitudinal study".
It takes information from "19,287 ward-day observations with information on 4,498 nurses and 66,923 hospital admissions in 53 inpatient hospital wards for acutely ill adult patients for calendar year 2017".
They were looking to see if you were more likely to survive on wards staffed with experienced nurses. No surprises, they found that you were.
"On average, an extra 12-hour shift by an RN (Registered Nurse) was associated with a reduction in the odds of a patient death of 9.6%. An additional senior RN (in NHS pay band 7 or 8) had 2.2 times the impact of an additional band 5 RN."
So yeah, the reason we pay experienced people more, is because there is no substitute for experience. Sadly our experienced NHS nurses are leaving in droves. They're over-worked, exhausted, disrespected and no end in sight, who can blame them?
In the UK Autumn COVID Boosters can now be booked by people who fall into the following groups:
- aged 50 and over
- pregnant
- at higher risk due to a health condition
- immunosuppressed
- a frontline health and social care worker
- a carer
This month's UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is attempting to restore worldwide faith in the UK Government and fiscal policy by destroying everything Kwasi Kwarteng did as quickly as possible. Real life Ctrl + Z (the "please God let me undo that" buttons). Sadly this includes the energy price cap. Bizarrely Putin has been rambling on about this too, he thinks placing a cap means you drive demand and meet the cap very quickly, and push prices over the top. Leaving it to fluctuate naturally ends in lower prices all round. In his opinion.
So, yeah. No universal energy price cap after April in the UK. We have yet to see where that'll take us. Fingers crossed.
Jeremy Hunt's cuts is a very hard phrase to say correctly isn't it?
(Just ask Robert Peston.)
The UK ONS have released data on reinfections, and 'natural immunity', which looks at the level of infection that protects you in the future. Basically a very mild case of COVID won't give you the same protection as a more severe case. The implication of this is that, as with lots of other infectious diseases, some people will get infection after infection until one day they get it bad. As we know COVID can cause damage each time you get it, it isn't something we really want to catch repeatedly. (I'd be remiss if I didn't mention school children, care home residents, repeat visitors to hospitals and healthcare workers at this point.)
The UK NHS is preparing for "what could be the worst Winter on record". We're told they are setting up "war rooms" or control hubs as would probably be a more appropriate name. The aim is to have a live view of where we have any vacant beds, in order to find space for as many people as possible (and stop them dying in the hospital car park or being turned away).
As yet we honestly have no idea how bad a Winter we will have, but assuming no measures against COVID, more damp and mold because of increased energy costs, waning immunity after 2 Winters indoors, and a large dose of complacency from the crowd, it is anticipated we may have a very bad year for respiratory infections, pneumonia and flu. Models predict we could even have half the UK's NHS hospital beds filled with people struggling to breathe.
Be sensible, make best use of fresh air and cardigans.
The UKs Health And Social Care Committee (HSCC) have just published their latest report on General Practice, or Doctor's surgeries as we usually call them.
It found that there are massive flaws, including no continuity of care (seeing a doctor shouldn't be like booking a taxi with a stranger) and an exodus of experienced GPs. Only 23.2% of GPs work full time, and we are 6,000 GPs short.
Professor Martin Marshall, Chair of the RCGP (Royal College of General Practitioners) presented evidence:
"... one of the reasons some GPs feel unable to work more hours is due to the workload and pressures they are under".
The HSCC realise that ordering Doctors to take more patients isn't going to fix a lack of Doctors, and will likely just make the current problems worse.
Lurking under the cloud of impending Winter doom, scientists are getting very agitated about which variants will take over - it will make all the difference. Exciting variants include:
- XBB, which is a combination of 2 Omicron variants (BA.2.75 and BJ.1) that is causing a (relatively small) surge in Asia, notably in Singapore and Bangladesh, and Maharashtra in India. It is on paper the most immune-evasive variant yet, although we have yet to see if that will prove true in real life. Early signs are better than predicted at this point.
- BA.2.75.2.
- BQ.1. The USA is experiencing an 'uptick' partly due to BQ.1 (finally, they get their own variant). They also have an issue with BQ.11. Watch this space...
- BF.7. Belgium gets their own variant too.
- BA.2.3.20
In the UK BA.2.75.X, BF.7 and BQ.X are all variants which "show evidence of a positive growth rate compared to BA.5". Basically they are low in number at the moment, but all are spreading more rapidly than the rate of our usual Omicron BA.5. Smaller, but faster. The strains currently designated a Variant Of Concern are all of those which start with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5.
"From UK data, BQ.X, BA.2.75.2 and BF.7 are the most concerning variants in terms of both growth and neutralisation data at present; there is also supportive animal model data for BA.2.75."
You got all that? Good. This is why I don't spend ages on variants, it's a full time job just to track what's out there.
Laurie Garrett
Hoax Of The Week:
mRNA vaccines for Heart Regeneration are hitting the news in some quarters (anti-vaxxers). I don't get it? It's like seagulls round chips. Something is public knowledge for years, then someone spots it and drags it out like news, and they all flock. Yes. Pfizer and Moderna and AstraZeneca are all DRUGS MANUFACTURERS. They weren't sitting round waiting for a pandemic, they were busy inventing new and more expensive drugs.
And no, they haven't given us all something that causes heart damage and then offered us a cure. If they were genius evil villains then they'd be offering us all a cure for all the things COVID can cause, not just one.
What's the difference in protection if you get your booster? Latest research about severe COVID and hospitalisation is in a new paper published in The Lancet (not yet peer reviewed). They found that using UK NHS figures, between 8th Dec 2020 and 28th Feb 2022:
"16,208,600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13,836,390 individuals received a booster dose. Between 20th Dec 2021 and 28th Feb 2022, 59,510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26,100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years)."
Older adults (≥80 years vs 18–49 years), those with comorbidities, males and people with certain underlying health conditions remained at high risk despite getting their first booster. People who had a COVID infection (at least 9 months before) were at reduced risk of reinfection.
Good news/bad news there. Remember though that we now have bivalent boosters especially designed for Omicron, and before vaccinations the rate of severe COVID was 10 times what it is now.
Footage is emerging of schoolchildren in China wearing white disposable suits and boarding busses to go to COVID quarantine.
"A recent preprint purported to show that SARS-CoV-2 is of synthetic origin, but it is so deeply flawed that it wouldn’t pass kindergarten molecular biology."
Kristian G Anderson of the Anderson Lab at Scripps Institute.
He goes to to explain they are getting over-excited about finding small virus mutations which will also occur naturally - and gives examples from the COVID GitHub database.
"The study is a clear example of motivated reasoning with a heavy dose of technobabble to make it sound legitimate - but it’s nothing more than poppycock dressed up as science."
He isn't all mean, he had a kind word for them:
"By all means, analyses such as these are valuable and worth doing - I myself did a bunch back in Jan/Feb, 2020. However, let’s make sure we have an actual scientific approach to them and don’t make up complete nonsense ‘studies’ to try and bolster a preferred narrative."
The US CDC has authorised the Novovax Vaccine as a mix and match booster for Americans aged 18+ who previously had the Pfizer or Moderna jab.
This is a classic vaccine, more similar to the Oxford AstraZeneca jab, and mixing vaccine types has proven more effective time and time again. Novovax is also particularly effective against Omicron B5, and it can be given to people who can't use mRNA vaccines.
If we do have power cuts (seems likely) then a battery-operated camping lantern is a very safe thing for kids to carry and tends to be less hilarious than a torch. If you use candles then tealights floating in a cereal bowl look very pretty, and when the cat/child/dressing gown sleeve knocks them over, you've a large chance they'll be put out before they hit the floor. Be careful.
We have more on the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Uganda, and it's taken a turn for the worse. Officials have imposed lockdowns in 2 areas and the US CDC have stepped up a response level in case of any imported cases.
This is the Ebola-Sudanese variant, for which there is no vaccine. It's possible around 25% of people who catch it may have no symptoms, but around 50% of people who have symptoms will not survive.
Trump Of The Day:
Podcast celebrity Tucker Carlson claimed that the US CDC were about to vote on adding COVID vaccination to the childhood Immunisation schedule, which would make it compulsory for school. The CDC themselves corrected him with the following:
"Thursday, CDC's independent advisory committee (ACIP) will vote on an updated childhood immunization schedule. States establish vaccine requirements for school children, not ACIP or CDC."
Naughty Tucker. Try and keep it real.
Professor Xi Chen of Yale School of Public Health has warned that China currently have such a low rate of vaccination, and so few people have caught COVID, they would face an "Imminent public health crisis" if they allowed COVID to spread at all. They have no choice, they can't give up on Zero COVID, they are far from prepared for it.
Scientists Get Naughty:
Researchers at Boston University in the USA have made a SARS-CoV-2 virus that has the spike of Omicron BA.1 and the remaining genome of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.
(This kind of thing has merit because it can be used when testing potential treatments and vaccines.)
However, they are in big trouble because their research was funded by the US government via the National Institute for Health (NIH), but they did not ask the NIH for permission to create this potentially more dangerous variant. Unsurprisingly you need to have all of the authorisations signed and dotted, you aren't allowed to just create super mutant virus whenever you feel like it...
People Get Stupid:
The rise of anti-vaccine sentiment has a knock on effect to all a host of infectious diseases which we currently protect ourselves against by vaccinations. Tragically this is becoming evident in the USA already, outbreaks of Polio (New York) and Measles (Minnesota).
The reason you don't fear these diseases is because you don't have to.
It is the weekend - Hurrah! It's also a week off for a lot of children, and a week of juggling for parents. Don't try and do too much, slow down and take a breather. Enjoy the Autumn light and the last of the warmth. Winter's coming.
Get Outdoors, Breathe Fresh Air, Save The NHS.
Some people. They look like numbers here, but they are all people.
Officially reported COVID Cases / Losses of life YESTERDAY in the full 24 hours up until midnight GMT:
Germany 35,098,062 (+92,293) 152,278 (+178)
France 36,475,518 (+56,793) 156,256 (+69)
Italy 23,254,633 (+40,560) 178,359 (+84)
Taiwan 7,341,940 (+39,782) 12,128 (+92)
Japan 21,894,638 (+36,110) 46,085 (+71)
USA 99,037,439 (+25,626) 1,092,409 (+175)
S. Korea 25,219,546 (+25,369) 28,922 (+23)
Russia 21,345,154 (+10,067) 389,266 (+90)
Austria 5,380,340 (+9,968) 20,980 (+5)
Singapore 2,046,123 (+8,176) 1,659 (+5)
UK 23,855,522 (+8,105) 192,682 (+143) Chile 4,696,888 (+6,375) 61,495 (+36) Hong Kong 1,858,720 (+5,433) 10,306 (+9)
Brazil 34,818,774 (+5,096) 687,544 (+66)
COVID-19 Coronavirus (and other virussy) UK and World News Update 14th October 2022
World: 629,131,545 reported cases and 6,568,889 losses of life.
The UK NHS has opened up online and phone bookings for the COVID Autumn Boosters today - around 12 million people aged over 50 can now access their jab. Some lucky people will be able to book the double whammy of booster plus flu jab together to save you having to go twice.
Don't say it out loud, but UK hospital admissions with COVID have flattened off this week... shhhhh...
Today's randomly sampled ONS data for the week ending 3rd October for England, and 29th September for Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland:
"The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in England and Northern Ireland, increased in Wales, and the trend was uncertain in Scotland.
- England, estimate 1,513,700, equating to 2.78% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.
- Wales, estimate 74,900, equating to 2.47% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.
- Northern Ireland, estimate 45,100, equating to 2.46% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.
- Scotland, estimate 109,700, equating to 2.08% of the population, or around 1 in 50 people.
COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update August 19th 2022
UK COVID Statistics:
England:
In the 7 days until 12th August 744 COVID-related deaths were reported. This 189 less than the week before (-20.3%).
In the 7 days to 15th August, 6,005 people were admitted to hospital with COVID.
Scotland:
In the 7 days to 14th August 66 COVID-related deaths were reported.
In the 7 days to 14th August, 448 people were admitted to hospital with COVID.
Northern Ireland:
In the 7 days to 12th August 16 COVID-related deaths were reported.
In the 7 days to 12th August, 60 people were admitted to hospital with COVID.
Wales:
In the 7 days to 13th August 17 COVID-related deaths were reported.
In the 7 days to 12th August, 278 people were admitted to hospital with COVID.
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,653,576 cases and 7,742 losses of life reported in total as of yesterday.
World: 599,293,153 reported cases and 6,467,625 losses of life.
The UK has become the first country to approve Moderna's new "bivalent" Omicron-specific COVID vaccine as a booster jab. Bivalent refers to the number '2', and it targets boring old COVID, as well as specifically targeting Omicron variants (by having especially shaped attachment points). Omicron variants now account for almost all cases on the globe, including most of those with the more disturbing collections of mutations.
In tests people given the new vaccine were found to increase their protection against Omicron by 8 times, and protection against older strains of COVID was actually very slightly higher too. This is exactly what you would hope from a tweaked and upgraded vaccine.
At the moment the UK MHRA have approved the jab as a booster for adults over age 18.
The UK's Autumn COVID booster will begin rollout on 5th September with care home residents and housebound people among the first in line. Wider rollout will begin a week later. Eligible people are basically anyone in a special jab group or aged 50 or over. You will be invited to attend when it's your turn, and you will be offered the new Moderna Omicron-specific jab.
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 22nd July 2022
UK: 23,212,565 reported cases and 182,727 losses of life (within 28 days of a positive test) as of July 15th.
World: 573,017,988 reported cases and 6,398,940 losses of life.
"The UK Commission on Covid Commemoration has been established to secure a broad consensus from across the whole of the United Kingdom on how we commemorate the COVID-19 pandemic and mark this distinctive period in our history at a national and community level. The Commission is expected to report to the Prime Minister [whoever that may be] by the end of March 2023."
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 21st June 2022
UK COVID Statistics according to Medriva:
Today: Cases: 22,525,358 (+16,430) Losses of Life: 179,706 (+105) Yesterday: Cases: 22,508,928 (+36,425) Losses of Life: 179,601 (+64) (Includes weekend backlog - I'm guessing cases on Monday and losses of life on Tuesday)
UK Gov Dashboard: Total losses of life with COVID listed as a cause on the Death Certificate up to June 10th: 196,977
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,578,284 cases and 7,409 losses of life up to yesterday, 20th June.
World: 545,221,827 reported cases and 6,342,385 losses of life.
Sorry I'm late - I had to take the kitten for her jabs!
“There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle... We are the generation that must prepare the Army to fight in Europe once again.” General Sir Patrick Sanders, new head of the British Army. Not actually saying we are going to go to war against Russia, thankfully, but clearly expressing the fact he believes there may be some potential.
Over 125 million COVID-19 vaccines have now been administered in England alone. If you have been invited for any and not yet had them, you will always be able to book in or go to a walk-in centre (if you are over 18) - it isn't too late.
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update Friday 17th June 2022
UK COVID Statistics:
Total Cases
England 18,908,381
Wales 875,497
Scotland 2,449,840
Northern Ireland 713,294
Lost their life within 28 days of a positive test:
England 156,186
Wales 7,517
Scotland 12,389
Northern Ireland 3,445
Admitted to hospital with COVID in the 7 days to Friday 10th June: 4,780
In hospital on Monday 13th June: 5,918
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,578,284 cases and 7,409 losses of life (not yet reported today).
World: 543,316,589 reported cases and 6,338,474 losses of life.
The ONS UK Random sampling (week ending 11/12 June) shows an increase, and it's big - cases are up 43% from last week.
"The latest data from our COVID19 Infection Survey show infection rates increased in all four UK countries, likely due to continued growth of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants."
(These are the variants which have battered South Africa and they are more transmissible than any others to date.)
"COVID19 infection rates increased in all English regions, except for the North East where the trend was uncertain."
Infections have increased across all age groups.
Hospitalisations are still highest in the North East (the North East has maintained a high level of hospital admissions pretty much throughout the last year, so they've suffered enough, they really don't need any more).
"COVID19 hospital admission rates increased in all age groups, remaining highest in those aged 85 years and over."
It isn't all such bad news. If you want reassurance about how well vaccinations are working at preventing severe COVID:
"Our COVID19 insights interaction tool shows infection levels are at similar levels to the Alpha wave peak in January 2021. However, during this time hospitalisations were 6 times higher and deaths involving COVID19 were over 32 times higher."
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 10th June 2022
Latest UK Govt. COVID Dashboard Statistics: Cases in the 7 days to 19th May: 57,625 (average 8,232 per day) Admitted to hospital with COVID in the 7 days to 3rd June: 3,624 In hospital Monday 6th June: 5,237 Total losses of life within 28 days of a positive test to 20th May: 177,977 Total losses of life with COVID listed as a cause to 27th May: 196,418 Tests in the 7 days to 19th May: 1,546,244 (average 220,892 per day)
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,570,519 cases and 7,383 losses of life.
World: 539,390,879 reported cases and 6,328,761 losses of life.
""Hospital admissions with COVID are rising again across England, up 10% week-on-week." Welcome to the next wave." Professor Kit Yates, Mathematical Biologist and IndieSAGE member, quoting yesterday's COVID Actuaries Response Group (CARG) weekly report. The UK Government might be releasing figures in the least understandable way ever, but that doesn't mean we can't see through it. Admissions rose last week in all English regions except London, with the fastest increase in the South East, which is up 28%. Nationally bed occupancy is up by 8%. Hospital deaths with COVID are still falling, down 9%, but as we are well aware, any increase in hospital admissions will inevitably be followed by a rise in the number of people succumbing.
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 7th June 2022
UK COVID Latest Govt. Dashboard Statistics: Cases in the 7 days to 2nd June: 57,615 (average 8,230 per day) Admitted to hospital with COVID in the 7 days to Sunday 29th May: 3,652 In hospital Thursday 2nd June: 4,891 Total losses of life within 28 days of a positive test to 20th May: 177,977 Total losses of life with COVID listed as a cause to 20th May: 195,962 Tests last 7 days: 1,546,244 (average 220,892 per day)
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,565,970 cases and 7,347 losses of life up until yesterday.
World: 536,108,391 reported cases and 6,321,883 losses of life.
“What we are detecting now is not the new transmissions that are happening, new transmissions are happening that we don't know anything about. And that really worries me." Boghuma Kabisen Titanji, Cameroonian medical doctor and clinical researcher, talking to Kai Kupferschmidt, science journalist about Monkeypox. It has a very long incubation period, which makes it stealthy. Average is 7-14 days, but it can be 3 weeks before an infected person develops any symptoms.
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 31st May 2022
UK COVID Statistics: Cases last 7 days: 57,602 (average 8,228 per day) Admitted to hospital with COVID in the 7 days to May 24th: 3,946 In hospital Thursday 26th: 5,584 Using a ventilator on Sunday 22nd May (this is the latest number): 175 Total losses of life within 28 days of a positive test up to 22nd May: 177,977 Total losses of life with COVID listed as a cause up to 20th May: 195,962 Tests last 7 days: 1,546,244 (average 20,892 per day)
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,561,632cases and 7,271 losses of life (not yet reported today).
World: 532,349,235 reported cases and 6,312,535 losses of life.
"UKHSA has procured over 20,000 doses of a safe smallpox vaccine (called Imvanex, supplied by Bavarian Nordic) as part of our rapid response to rising monkeypox cases." I see the UK Health Security Agency are determined to beat everyone else to this vaccine too. Vaccines for smallpox, unlike COVID vaccines, are still useful once a person has been exposed, so close contacts of confirmed monkeypox cases in the UK are being vaccinated already (and the same is true in many/most affected countries, including the USA).
COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 27th May 2022
UK COVID Statistics - The page says it's all updated, but some of the data is over a week old. It makes a lot of this irrelevant as anything but a rough guide as to trajectory: Cases in the 7 days up to 22nd May: 57,584 (similar to a week earlier) Admitted to hospital with COVID in the 7 days to 22nd May: 4,130 (substantially DOWN on a week earlier) In hospital yesterday: 5,584 (substantially DOWN from 6,729 a week earlier) Losses of life in the 7 days up to 20th May: 725 (down slightly on a week earlier) Total losses of life within 28 days of a positive test up to 20th May: 177,977 Total losses of life with COVID listed as a cause up to 13th May: 195,347 Tests in the 7 days up to 19th May: 1,546,244 (similar to a week earlier) UK Vaccination data up to 18th May 1st Dose 53,398,518 2nd Dose 49,895,254 Booster/Third Jabs 39,585,631
Rep. Of Ireland: 1,561,632 cases and 7,271 losses of life (not yet reported today).
World: 530,508,082 reported cases and 6,308,310 losses of life.
The Nursing Director of the UK's West Midlands Ambulance Service, Mark Docherty, has told the Health Service Journal (HSJ) that some people are now waiting up to 24 hours in an ambulance before a suitable bed is found, and the service could collapse completely. Over 100 people have now died when "the service has been unable to respond because its ambulances are held outside hospitals". Mr Docherty has gone so far as to predict the exact day the service might collapse completely if current trajectories continue - August 17th. “It would make me the happiest person in the world if everyone in the system proves to me that actually the ambulance service in the West Midlands isn’t going to fail on 17 August, and I’ve got it completely wrong.” Date for your diary there... fingers crossed it never happens.
