Friday, 9 October 2020

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News update 9th October 2020.

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News update 9th October 2020.

The UK added 13,864 cases today and now has reported a total of 575,679 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 285,015 tests yesterday. 

3,660 people were in hospital on Wednesday 7th, with 436 using a ventilator yesterday. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 87 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 42,679 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Up until Friday 35th September, we had lost 57,347 people who had COVID noted on their death certificate. 

Rep. Of Ireland 40,703 (+617) cases and 1,821(+4) losses of life.

There have now been a total of 36,950,832 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,069,577. Already 27,782,381 people have recovered.

Take a Break WHO COVID advice

"An estimated 224,400 people (95% credible interval: 203,800 to 245,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 25 September to 1 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 240 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 270 to 1 in 220).
The estimate shows the number of infections has increased rapidly in recent weeks."
UK Office For National Statistics. 

Today's independent (not-Government) SAGE group briefing started with a warning that I think won't surprise anyone. This is "not a good news week." It was Dr Alice Roberts presenting though, so that made it a little better.
Test and Trace mislaid almost 16,000 cases, results for contact tracing are the worst ever. The time taken to receive results is longer than previously. It's not gone well.
ONS results out today show that cases are rising really rapidly, and doubling around every 2 weeks. The Public Health England REACT Study suggests doubling around 3 weeks, but with massive regional differences.
Northern Ireland has seen a very rapid rise in cases.

It's rumoured that the UK's 'Tier' system will have a Level 2 threshold of 100 cases per 100,000 population. As of now, it appears the North West, North East and Yorkshire areas fall well over that, with Midlands just below - but obviously even within these areas there is massive geographical difference.
We are getting a positivity rate of 12% in the North West, 12% in Scotland. WHO say over 5% and you are missing cases. We need to do much better.
There are increases in all age groups except 0-10, and there is a massive increase in the number of teenagers testing positive. Encouraging for Primary Schools, less so for Secondary Schools, but really the big rise is in older teenagers/young people - College/Uni age.
Hospital admissions in England are on a 14 day doubling rate.
When we locked down, London was stretched for hospital capacity. We will be around that rate in the North in around 1 week. (Don't forget we have the Nightingale Hospitals to call on, so hopefully we will never run out of our overflow capacity.)
The existing restrictions clearly are not enough to restrict and reverse growth. It is their belief we should implement harder restrictions NOW, not next week. They are also quite mortified the government haven't bothered to go back to Daily Briefings. 

UK MP's will be getting a £3k pay rise. That's nice for them. 

149 UK MP's from the North and the Midlands have been shown some as-yet-unpublished data by Chris Whitty. I've seen screenshots. It suggests that 23.6% (almost 1 in every 4) cases of COVID was caught by customers when drinking or eating out, and 6.2% of cases were people who work in hospitality. Terrible news for pubs and restaurants, especially upsetting for those who have tried incredibly hard and managed to avoid any cases. 

091020 Indie SAGE NHS England data on cases in each England area

A 'Freedom Of information' request has led to Sky News discovering 1,114 Deloitte consultants are working on the UK's Test and Trace, and they are being paid up to £2.3k PER DAY each. OMG, what definition of failure do these people have? Why us!! I'd have organised a better notification system by strapping the guinea pig to my son's bike and setting it off round the local area. In any usual business you'd politely 'let go' the 1,114 overpaid people who clearly haven't got a bloody clue what they are even doing, and replace them with ANYONE ELSE.

Donald Trump will be well enough to return to work tomorrow according to his  physician Dr. Sean Conley. Dr Sean says Trump has “remained stable and devoid of any indications to suggest progression of illness.”
Glad to hear it, although he's hardly been 'off work' anyway. (If only we knew which of the treatments he was given had really made the difference.)
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is seeking a 25th Amendment commission, to rule on whether he is mentally and physically well enough to return. Cripes... best of luck there.. 

The Spanish Cabinet have declared a 15 day State Of Alarm in Madrid. The case levels there are worse than anywhere in the UK, and local administrators failed to propose new measures by a deadline of noon today. There have been legal battles between the government and local leaders, and a High Court has ruled that the government can't impose movement restrictions without a State Of Alarm. Sorted that one then. 

091020 estimated percentage testing positive by age ONS

The Spanish situation is not so different from what's happening now in Northern England. Local leaders are calling for a furlough or other payment before they close any business. Rishi Sunak has said he will be doing something, so it's likely this won't end so acrimoniously... 

The RECOVERY trial paper on Hydroxychloroquine has finally been published, and you can see why trials were stopped. After 28 days the mortality rate in the control group was 25%, and in patients given Hydroxychloroquine it was 27%. It didn't work, and may have actually had a negative effect. That 2% was enough to get the trial instantly stopped. It may seem small, but those numbers are people. 

Trump Of The Day:
With speculation over his health looming, and a desperate desire to prove he's all better now and COVID isn't dangerous (if you have access to ALL the drugs), President Trump will be interviewed live on Fox News telly tonight by a Dr. Marc Siegel.
Dr Marc is apparently still a fan of Hydroxychloroquine, and appears to be a friend of Mr Trump, so it may not be entirely unbalanced. But then it rarely is...  

091020 infection within the community ONS

China have joined in the World Health Organisation's COVAX scheme to distribute any proven vaccine around the world.  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said:  “We are taking this concrete step to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines, especially to developing countries, and hope more capable countries will also join and support Covax.”
Big players Russia and the USA are not involved. 

We have massively raised testing capacity. We have reduced the length of hospital stays, we have reduced use of mechanical ventilation, we have reduced the mortality rate, and we have over 100 different vaccines in production. We are still in a much better position than we were in Spring. Never lose sight of that. 

The World Food Programme has been awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace. 

Tomorrow is World Mental Health Day. NO-ONE should be getting dressed unless you absolutely have to. Pyjama day all round. Coronavirus has affected EVERYONE's mental health. You've been worried and scared. You've been confused, you've felt like you've lost control. You worry for the future, you worry for your kids. Money, work, exams, travel, medical care, family. It's all been thrown into a different light. You aren't on your own, ever. We're all here with you. We get it. 

When you can, take some time to be you - just you. To forget about anything other than doing something you want to do. Spoil yourself, buy some flowers, take a bath, walk the neighbours dog, listen to the rain. We all need time out, don't forget to take yours.  

Have a good weekend, I'm back Sunday. Stay Well, Bake Cake, Save The NHS. 

Some people. They were all once their parents' most precious gift: 

Countries / Cases / Losses of life (some states /provinces yet to report):

USA 7,857,088 (+23,325) 218,091 (+353)

India 6,957,511 (+53,699) 107,039 (+518)

Brazil 5,035,744 (+6,205) 149,189 (+155)

Russia 1,272,238 (+12,126) 22,257 (+201)

Spain 890,367 (+5,986) 32,929 (+241)

Colombia 886,179 not yet reported today 27,331

Argentina 856,369 not yet reported today 22,710

Peru 838,614 not yet reported today 33,098

Mexico 804,488 (+5,300) 83,096 (+370)

South Africa 686,891 not yet reported today 17,408

France 671,638 not yet reported today 32,521

UK 575,679 (+13,864)42,679 (+87)

Iran 492,378 (+4,142) 28,098 (+210)

Chile 477,769 (+1,753) 13,220 (+53) 

Iraq 397,780 (+3,214) 9,735 (+52)

.

Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://t.co/h4pihM4kRu

"Nancy Pelosi could establish a 25th Amendment commission to rule on President Trump's fitness for office" https://twitter.com/i/events/1314376010981240832?s=09

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1314455857682317318?s=19

indie SAGE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oK4tpFK0_4

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland9october2020

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1314179590412271617?s=19

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-national-lockdown-calls-coronavirus_uk_5f7f33a5c5b6a9322e24a975?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925332/Evidence_pack_parliamentary_engagement.pdf

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-vaccine-china-covax-who/2020/10/08/cf4e1e96-09d2-11eb-8719-0df159d14794_story.html

https://twitter.com/PeterHorby/status/1314311887803363332?s=19

Hydroxychloroquine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022926

Remdesivir

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764

Dexamethasone 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2021436

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-1-000-consultants-from-deloitte-on-test-and-trace-programme-12099127

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-09/spanish-cabinet-declares-state-of-alarm-in-madrid-region-in-bid-to-slow-spread-of-coronavirus.html

https://twitter.com/PaulbernalUK/status/1314467988096135168?s=19

https://www.newsweek.com/who-marc-siegel-doctor-fox-news-contributor-conduct-medical-evaluation-trump-air-1537822

https://www.axios.com/trump-interview-coronavirus-fox-news-0cd70c49-fd99-49e2-9248-349de3d988f5.html

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-09/spanish-cabinet-declares-state-of-alarm-in-madrid-region-in-bid-to-slow-spread-of-coronavirus.html

https://twitter.com/MayorofGM/status/1314604207870291968

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